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Sunday, July 10, 2011

Weekly Economic Financial Commentary - July 8, 2011

- Nonfarm payrolls rose just 18,000 during June and are clearly below the pace of the past six months, as government jobs fell by 39,000 for the month.

. We project job gains to average 170,000 per month during the second half of this year, as we believe the end of the soft patch will allow the economy to resume growth.

- For the second half of this year, we expect gains of 3 percent compared to GDP growth of 1.8 to 2.0 percent during the first half of 2011.

. Improved growth should be driven by equipment and software investment, structures and residential construction, net exports, and inventory spending.

- For 2011, our GDP growth estimate is 2.3 percent, compared to the FOMC estimate of 2.7 to 2.9 percent.

. Our estimate for the core PCE deflator is currently 2.1 percent, while the FOMC expects a reading between 1.5 and 1.8 percent.

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