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Friday, October 21, 2011

Wells Fargo's Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary- October 21, 2011

- Leading indicators rose 0.2 percent in September and have risen 5.3 percent over the past three months, a pattern consistent with economic expansion, as both financial and production indicators contributed to the gain.

- The four-week moving average for jobless claims has declined for the past several weeks and now stands just above the 400,000 claim threshold.

- The Consumer Price Index rose 3.9 percent year-over-year during September, while the core CPI rose 2.0 percent.

- The 15.0 percent increase in housing starts in September was led by the multi-family segment, supporting our outlook that both nonresidential construction and apartments will contribute to growth moving forward.

. We expect housing starts to improve slowly and average 740,000 during 2012, compared to 610,000 this year.

- Existing home sales continue to place a drag on economic growth, as 30 percent of the homes sold in September were distressed properties, and 18 percent of the National Association of Realtors’ members reported a cancellation during the month.

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