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Saturday, November 12, 2011

Wells Fargo’s Monthly Economic Outlook – November 2011

- Consumer spending was strong during 3Q11, rising at a 2.4 percent annual rate, and recent data indicates spending will likely hold up reasonably well in 4Q11.

. The long-term sustainability of recent gains remains in question, however, as the saving rate has fallen from 5.3 percent in June to 3.6 percent in September.

- Nonfarm payrolls increased an average of 114,000 per month during the past three months, and employment in the nonagricultural portion of the household series rose by an average of 433,000 per month during that time.

- Growth during 4Q11 appears to be on pace to match 3Q11’s 2.5 percent annual rate, with solid gains in consumer spending and business fixed investment driving growth.

. We now expect real GDP to rise 1.8 percent in 2011 and 2.0 percent in 2012.

- Operation Twist has been mildly successful thus far and the Federal Reserve may opt to provide a boost to the program if growth falters in the coming months.

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