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Sunday, December 11, 2011

Wells Fargo's Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary- December 9, 2011

- First time claims for unemployment fell to 381,000 in the first week of December after rising to 404,000 during the holiday-shortened week of November 25.

. The ISM manufacturing survey’s employment component slipped to 51.8 in November from 53.5 during the prior month, while the employment component of the service sector ISM fell to 48.9 in November from 53.3.

- Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft turned negative in October, falling 0.8 percent, while shipments of these goods declined for the second month in a row.

- We forecast a 5.2 percent increase in holiday sales year-over-year, but data suggests consumers cut back on spending following Black Friday, as Redbook same-store sales fell 2.6 percent month-over-month through the week of December 3.

. While our forecast calls for decent holiday sales, we suspect consumer spending growth will slow to less than 1.5 percent in the first quarter.

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